Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Mestika Dharma Tbk (BBMD.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,057.86 - $1,798.07$1,379.77
Multi-Stage$1,436.13 - $1,574.01$1,503.77
Blended Fair Value$1,441.77
Current Price$2,120.00
Upside-31.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%5.60%34.2534.2534.2429.770.000.0014.8914.8914.8912.40
YoY Growth--0.00%0.03%15.01%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%20.05%-37.53%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.70%1.75%1.45%0.00%0.00%1.08%1.06%0.96%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342,869.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)137,997.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)204,871.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68,573.8942,858.6825,715.21
Cash Retained (M)204,871.93204,871.93204,871.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-68,573.89-42,858.68-25,715.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)136,298.04162,013.25179,156.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,029.134,029.134,029.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.8340.2144.47
LTM Dividend per Share34.2534.2534.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.8340.2144.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend68.0874.4678.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Fair Value$1,057.86$1,379.77$1,798.07
Upside / Downside-50.10%-34.92%-15.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342,869.45351,269.54359,875.43368,692.15377,724.88386,978.91398,588.27
Payout Ratio40.25%50.20%60.15%70.10%80.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)137,997.52176,331.21216,460.39258,450.00302,367.13348,281.02368,694.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Year 1 PV (M)161,707.82163,301.79164,895.76
Year 2 PV (M)182,046.40185,652.98189,294.93
Year 3 PV (M)199,334.30205,287.15211,357.36
Year 4 PV (M)213,866.08222,423.96231,236.13
Year 5 PV (M)225,911.82237,267.65249,075.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,803,480.115,044,934.905,296,003.22
Equity Value (M)5,786,346.536,058,868.436,341,863.02
Shares Outstanding (M)4,029.134,029.134,029.13
Fair Value$1,436.13$1,503.77$1,574.01
Upside / Downside-32.26%-29.07%-25.75%

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