Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ASML Holding N.V. (ASME.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$462.58 - $995.18$660.03
Multi-Stage$339.97 - $371.12$355.26
Blended Fair Value$507.65
Current Price$828.10
Upside-38.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.10%24.78%6.286.016.553.502.733.391.531.321.140.77
YoY Growth--4.45%-8.26%87.08%28.31%-19.56%122.02%15.56%15.88%47.50%12.81%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.68%1.06%0.57%0.53%1.40%0.90%0.83%0.92%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,463.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,529.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,934.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,892.641,182.90709.74
Cash Retained (M)6,934.206,934.206,934.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,892.64-1,182.90-709.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,041.565,751.306,224.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)390.53390.53390.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.9114.7315.94
LTM Dividend per Share6.486.486.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.9114.7315.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.3921.2022.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$462.58$660.03$995.18
Upside / Downside-44.14%-20.30%20.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,463.2010,078.3110,733.4011,431.0712,174.0912,965.4013,354.37
Payout Ratio26.72%39.38%52.03%64.69%77.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,529.003,968.805,585.107,394.749,416.0411,668.8612,352.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,576.693,610.593,644.49
Year 2 PV (M)4,536.004,622.404,709.61
Year 3 PV (M)5,412.365,567.735,726.04
Year 4 PV (M)6,210.886,449.736,695.41
Year 5 PV (M)6,936.417,271.447,619.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)106,093.02111,217.36116,537.81
Equity Value (M)132,765.35138,739.24144,932.65
Shares Outstanding (M)390.53390.53390.53
Fair Value$339.97$355.26$371.12
Upside / Downside-58.95%-57.10%-55.18%

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