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Definitive Analysis

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América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V. (AMXB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.28 - $17.46$14.14
Multi-Stage$24.17 - $26.59$25.35
Blended Fair Value$19.75
Current Price$16.80
Upside17.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.04%6.16%0.510.500.490.460.160.400.370.270.230.62
YoY Growth--1.77%3.16%6.13%190.12%-60.44%8.40%39.02%16.52%-63.04%119.06%
Dividend Yield--3.51%3.22%2.50%2.33%1.17%2.92%2.75%1.57%1.80%4.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73,165.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31,957.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)41,207.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,633.039,145.645,487.39
Cash Retained (M)41,207.2541,207.2541,207.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,633.03-9,145.64-5,487.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)26,574.2232,061.6035,719.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60,559.3160,559.3160,559.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-1.76%-0.76%0.24%
Fair Value$11.28$14.14$17.46
Upside / Downside-32.85%-15.81%3.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73,165.1672,612.3072,063.6371,519.1070,978.6970,442.3672,555.63
Payout Ratio43.68%52.94%62.21%71.47%80.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31,957.9138,443.3644,828.9751,115.8857,305.2363,398.1267,113.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-1.76%-0.76%0.24%
Year 1 PV (M)35,679.1736,042.3436,405.51
Year 2 PV (M)38,614.0839,404.1740,202.25
Year 3 PV (M)40,863.5742,124.1343,410.35
Year 4 PV (M)42,517.5544,275.2546,086.90
Year 5 PV (M)43,655.9945,923.4948,284.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,262,127.631,327,682.731,395,933.93
Equity Value (M)1,463,458.001,535,452.121,610,323.18
Shares Outstanding (M)60,559.3160,559.3160,559.31
Fair Value$24.17$25.35$26.59
Upside / Downside43.84%50.92%58.28%

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