Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Precia S.A. (ALPM.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$214.01 - $524.13$491.18
Multi-Stage$76.09 - $83.30$79.63
Blended Fair Value$285.41
Current Price$30.00
Upside851.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.99%9.95%0.480.480.470.350.170.300.270.250.240.20
YoY Growth--1.09%0.98%35.00%108.30%-43.92%10.26%10.01%4.32%19.07%6.47%
Dividend Yield--1.57%1.51%1.63%0.93%0.80%1.56%1.60%1.12%1.43%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.851.781.07
Cash Retained (M)9.629.629.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.85-1.78-1.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.777.848.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.405.405.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.251.451.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.251.451.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.112.312.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$214.01$491.18$524.13
Upside / Downside613.36%1,537.28%1,647.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.2315.1616.1417.1918.3119.5020.09
Payout Ratio32.45%43.96%55.47%66.98%78.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.626.668.9611.5214.3717.5518.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6.206.266.31
Year 2 PV (M)7.747.898.04
Year 3 PV (M)9.269.529.79
Year 4 PV (M)10.7411.1611.58
Year 5 PV (M)12.2012.7913.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)364.83382.45400.75
Equity Value (M)410.97430.06449.87
Shares Outstanding (M)5.405.405.40
Fair Value$76.09$79.63$83.30
Upside / Downside153.64%165.42%177.65%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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