Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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L'Air Liquide S.A. (AIL.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$349.39 - $1,660.33$618.31
Multi-Stage$309.05 - $338.47$323.48
Blended Fair Value$470.90
Current Price$175.18
Upside168.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.12%7.44%2.972.742.442.312.262.012.011.781.641.60
YoY Growth--8.66%12.10%5.67%2.06%12.46%0.31%12.43%8.85%2.50%10.23%
Dividend Yield--1.92%1.70%2.01%1.82%2.03%1.93%2.52%2.25%2.09%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,463.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,671.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,791.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,292.72807.95484.77
Cash Retained (M)2,791.702,791.702,791.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,292.72-807.95-484.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,498.981,983.752,306.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)577.77577.77577.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.593.433.99
LTM Dividend per Share6.366.366.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.593.433.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.959.7910.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Fair Value$349.39$618.31$1,660.33
Upside / Downside99.45%252.96%847.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,463.606,775.577,102.607,445.427,804.788,181.498,426.94
Payout Ratio56.81%63.45%70.09%76.72%83.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,671.904,298.914,977.885,712.396,506.217,363.347,794.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Year 1 PV (M)3,998.544,037.054,075.57
Year 2 PV (M)4,306.584,389.944,474.09
Year 3 PV (M)4,596.734,730.844,867.52
Year 4 PV (M)4,869.715,060.055,255.91
Year 5 PV (M)5,126.185,377.855,639.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)155,660.49163,302.45171,241.66
Equity Value (M)178,558.23186,898.18195,554.05
Shares Outstanding (M)577.77577.77577.77
Fair Value$309.05$323.48$338.47
Upside / Downside76.42%84.66%93.21%

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