Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.20 - $79.39$67.01
Multi-Stage$115.22 - $127.05$121.02
Blended Fair Value$94.02
Current Price$84.65
Upside11.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.68%-1.11%1.351.331.271.311.371.471.411.391.371.43
YoY Growth--1.49%4.69%-3.03%-4.35%-6.76%4.23%1.43%1.45%-4.17%-5.26%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.56%2.53%2.06%3.24%5.70%3.15%3.84%3.69%5.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)402.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)333.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.4050.2530.15
Cash Retained (M)333.00333.00333.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.40-50.25-30.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)252.60282.75302.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.3550.3550.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.025.626.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.371.371.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.025.626.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.396.997.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.47%7.47%7.47%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Fair Value$55.20$67.01$79.39
Upside / Downside-34.79%-20.84%-6.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)402.00391.24380.77370.57360.65351.00361.53
Payout Ratio17.16%31.73%46.30%60.87%75.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.00124.15176.29225.55272.05315.90334.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.47%7.47%7.47%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Year 1 PV (M)114.33115.52116.70
Year 2 PV (M)149.51152.64155.79
Year 3 PV (M)176.17181.72187.37
Year 4 PV (M)195.69203.94212.46
Year 5 PV (M)209.26220.35231.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,956.555,219.235,492.94
Equity Value (M)5,801.526,093.406,397.17
Shares Outstanding (M)50.3550.3550.35
Fair Value$115.22$121.02$127.05
Upside / Downside36.12%42.97%50.09%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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