Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AAK AB (publ.) (AAK.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,363.28 - $2,601.34$2,437.83
Multi-Stage$406.55 - $445.06$425.45
Blended Fair Value$1,431.64
Current Price$244.60
Upside485.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.40%14.40%3.682.742.482.262.061.801.581.421.261.09
YoY Growth--34.45%10.53%9.49%10.07%14.29%13.83%11.35%12.80%15.49%13.60%
Dividend Yield--1.32%1.07%1.32%1.29%1.04%1.11%1.14%1.16%1.28%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,409.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,298.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,111.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)681.80426.13255.68
Cash Retained (M)2,111.002,111.002,111.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-681.80-426.13-255.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,429.201,684.881,855.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)260.62260.62260.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.486.467.12
LTM Dividend per Share4.984.984.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.486.467.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.4611.4512.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,363.28$2,437.83$2,601.34
Upside / Downside457.35%896.66%963.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,409.003,630.593,866.574,117.904,385.564,670.634,810.74
Payout Ratio38.08%48.46%58.85%69.23%79.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,298.001,759.402,275.302,850.833,491.574,203.564,449.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,639.441,654.981,670.52
Year 2 PV (M)1,975.602,013.222,051.21
Year 3 PV (M)2,306.542,372.752,440.22
Year 4 PV (M)2,632.322,733.562,837.68
Year 5 PV (M)2,953.013,095.653,243.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,449.9299,011.89103,748.45
Equity Value (M)105,956.83110,882.04115,991.81
Shares Outstanding (M)260.62260.62260.62
Fair Value$406.55$425.45$445.06
Upside / Downside66.21%73.94%81.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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