Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NICHIDEN Corporation (9902.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,072.82 - $33,806.48$15,405.65
Multi-Stage$4,519.84 - $4,952.67$4,732.24
Blended Fair Value$10,068.95
Current Price$2,721.00
Upside270.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.14%15.04%96.7769.0869.0142.4847.7947.8342.5137.1634.5929.31
YoY Growth--40.08%0.10%62.47%-11.12%-0.07%12.50%14.39%7.44%18.01%23.01%
Dividend Yield--3.51%1.82%2.88%2.25%2.22%2.03%2.23%1.74%1.77%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,062.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)986.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,075.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,012.40632.75379.65
Cash Retained (M)4,075.504,075.504,075.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,012.40-632.75-379.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,063.103,442.753,695.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.5429.5429.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share103.68116.53125.09
LTM Dividend per Share33.3933.3933.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share103.68116.53125.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend137.07149.92158.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Fair Value$7,072.82$15,405.65$33,806.48
Upside / Downside159.93%466.18%1,142.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,062.005,348.355,650.915,970.586,308.336,665.196,865.14
Payout Ratio19.49%33.59%47.69%61.80%75.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)986.501,796.552,695.093,689.544,787.875,998.676,350.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Year 1 PV (M)1,668.031,683.971,699.91
Year 2 PV (M)2,323.302,367.912,412.95
Year 3 PV (M)2,953.053,038.513,125.60
Year 4 PV (M)3,558.013,695.963,837.88
Year 5 PV (M)4,138.914,340.464,549.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,897.11124,687.03130,700.34
Equity Value (M)133,538.41139,813.84146,326.47
Shares Outstanding (M)29.5429.5429.54
Fair Value$4,519.84$4,732.24$4,952.67
Upside / Downside66.11%73.92%82.02%

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