Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chuo Warehouse Co.,Ltd. (9319.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,635.46 - $3,238.64$2,264.53
Multi-Stage$2,460.28 - $2,701.52$2,578.60
Blended Fair Value$2,421.57
Current Price$1,402.00
Upside72.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.36%3.51%32.6229.7226.8823.1323.0322.8725.1423.0623.0623.08
YoY Growth--9.77%10.55%16.21%0.46%0.71%-9.05%9.04%0.00%-0.11%-0.12%
Dividend Yield--2.38%2.26%2.46%2.38%2.20%2.31%2.39%1.85%2.12%2.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,843.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)672.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,171.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)368.74230.46138.28
Cash Retained (M)1,171.321,171.321,171.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-368.74-230.46-138.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)802.58940.861,033.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.5218.5218.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share43.3450.8055.78
LTM Dividend per Share36.3136.3136.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share43.3450.8055.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend79.6487.1192.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Fair Value$1,635.46$2,264.53$3,238.64
Upside / Downside16.65%61.52%131.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,843.691,889.901,937.261,985.812,035.582,086.602,149.19
Payout Ratio36.47%47.17%57.88%68.59%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)672.37891.561,121.311,362.021,614.091,877.941,988.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Year 1 PV (M)829.37837.54845.71
Year 2 PV (M)970.34989.561,008.96
Year 3 PV (M)1,096.431,129.161,162.53
Year 4 PV (M)1,208.721,257.061,306.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,308.221,373.941,442.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,150.4842,167.5744,264.92
Equity Value (M)45,563.5647,754.8250,031.23
Shares Outstanding (M)18.5218.5218.52
Fair Value$2,460.28$2,578.60$2,701.52
Upside / Downside75.48%83.92%92.69%

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