Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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J Trust Co., Ltd. (8508.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,232.09 - $6,953.85$6,516.67
Multi-Stage$1,109.59 - $1,214.89$1,161.27
Blended Fair Value$3,838.97
Current Price$424.00
Upside805.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192019201820172016
DPS76.21%4.22%13.389.650.790.000.790.799.279.2610.518.73
YoY Growth--38.72%1,124.76%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-91.50%0.08%-11.85%20.36%-1.36%
Dividend Yield--3.06%2.14%0.20%0.00%0.34%0.35%1.86%1.01%1.19%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,670.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,858.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,812.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)934.00583.75350.25
Cash Retained (M)2,812.002,812.002,812.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-934.00-583.75-350.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,878.002,228.252,461.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)133.33133.33133.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.0916.7118.46
LTM Dividend per Share13.9413.9413.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.0916.7118.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.0230.6532.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.31%6.31%7.31%
Fair Value$3,232.09$6,516.67$6,953.85
Upside / Downside662.28%1,436.95%1,540.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,670.004,964.845,278.305,611.565,965.856,342.516,532.78
Payout Ratio39.79%49.83%59.87%69.91%79.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,858.002,473.923,160.203,923.284,770.125,708.266,042.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.31%6.31%7.31%
Year 1 PV (M)2,307.002,328.902,350.81
Year 2 PV (M)2,748.142,800.582,853.51
Year 3 PV (M)3,181.533,273.023,366.26
Year 4 PV (M)3,607.273,746.243,889.19
Year 5 PV (M)4,025.454,220.234,422.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)132,069.04138,459.53145,095.03
Equity Value (M)147,938.43154,828.51161,977.29
Shares Outstanding (M)133.33133.33133.33
Fair Value$1,109.59$1,161.27$1,214.89
Upside / Downside161.70%173.88%186.53%

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