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Definitive Analysis

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ShinMaywa Industries, Ltd. (7224.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,054.40 - $3,980.32$2,821.38
Multi-Stage$3,273.55 - $3,595.25$3,431.33
Blended Fair Value$3,126.35
Current Price$1,852.00
Upside68.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-11.62%9.70%49.4446.3943.8437.8139.7891.7148.5520.2120.6522.62
YoY Growth--6.59%5.80%15.97%-4.94%-56.63%88.91%140.19%-2.12%-8.70%15.44%
Dividend Yield--3.06%3.24%3.25%3.50%4.15%9.08%3.49%1.55%2.18%3.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,567.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,436.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,131.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,713.401,070.88642.53
Cash Retained (M)5,131.005,131.005,131.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,713.40-1,070.88-642.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,417.604,060.134,488.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.1066.1066.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.7161.4367.91
LTM Dividend per Share51.9851.9851.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.7161.4367.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend103.69113.41119.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$2,054.40$2,821.38$3,980.32
Upside / Downside10.93%52.34%114.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,567.008,758.478,954.219,154.339,358.939,568.099,855.14
Payout Ratio40.11%50.09%60.06%70.04%80.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,436.004,386.765,378.306,411.977,489.158,611.289,116.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)4,084.704,125.044,165.39
Year 2 PV (M)4,663.124,755.704,849.19
Year 3 PV (M)5,176.545,331.465,489.44
Year 4 PV (M)5,629.855,855.616,088.10
Year 5 PV (M)6,027.656,331.306,647.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)190,788.95200,400.04210,394.61
Equity Value (M)216,370.81226,799.16237,633.80
Shares Outstanding (M)66.1066.1066.10
Fair Value$3,273.55$3,431.33$3,595.25
Upside / Downside76.76%85.28%94.13%

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