Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Premium Group Co., Ltd. (7199.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,065.94 - $1,638.96$1,332.81
Multi-Stage$2,332.94 - $2,569.05$2,448.67
Blended Fair Value$1,890.74
Current Price$2,156.00
Upside-12.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.41%0.00%34.7124.4318.8816.2414.8314.9120.170.000.000.00
YoY Growth--42.08%29.36%16.26%9.52%-0.53%-26.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.14%1.09%1.25%1.27%2.38%3.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,469.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,493.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,976.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)893.80558.63335.18
Cash Retained (M)2,976.002,976.002,976.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-893.80-558.63-335.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,082.202,417.382,640.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.2438.2438.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share54.4663.2269.07
LTM Dividend per Share39.0539.0539.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share54.4663.2269.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend93.50102.27108.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,065.94$1,332.81$1,638.96
Upside / Downside-50.56%-38.18%-23.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,469.004,424.314,380.074,336.274,292.904,249.974,377.47
Payout Ratio33.41%44.73%56.04%67.36%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,493.001,978.832,454.802,921.053,377.723,824.984,049.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,837.631,856.381,875.13
Year 2 PV (M)2,116.962,160.382,204.24
Year 3 PV (M)2,339.282,411.632,485.45
Year 4 PV (M)2,511.982,616.092,723.40
Year 5 PV (M)2,641.612,779.172,922.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,754.9181,803.7986,019.61
Equity Value (M)89,202.3693,627.4398,230.22
Shares Outstanding (M)38.2438.2438.24
Fair Value$2,332.94$2,448.67$2,569.05
Upside / Downside8.21%13.57%19.16%

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