Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Trans-Sun Materials Technology Company Limited (6967.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.34 - $49.93$40.51
Multi-Stage$74.93 - $82.35$78.57
Blended Fair Value$59.54
Current Price$56.90
Upside4.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%3.173.346.818.2610.550.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---5.12%-50.98%-17.59%-21.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.38%4.68%9.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.4610.916.55
Cash Retained (M)17.5817.5817.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.46-10.91-6.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.126.6711.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.9424.9424.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.270.44
LTM Dividend per Share2.802.802.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.270.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.803.063.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$32.34$40.51$49.93
Upside / Downside-43.16%-28.80%-12.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.3186.4485.5784.7283.8783.0385.52
Payout Ratio79.87%81.89%83.92%85.95%87.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.7370.7971.8172.8173.7874.7379.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)65.8066.4867.15
Year 2 PV (M)62.0663.3364.62
Year 3 PV (M)58.4960.3062.15
Year 4 PV (M)55.1057.3859.74
Year 5 PV (M)51.8854.5857.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,575.301,657.331,742.75
Equity Value (M)1,868.641,959.412,053.79
Shares Outstanding (M)24.9424.9424.94
Fair Value$74.93$78.57$82.35
Upside / Downside31.69%38.08%44.73%

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