Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao NovelBeam Technology Co.,Ltd. (688677.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.56 - $74.07$42.32
Multi-Stage$19.41 - $21.18$20.28
Blended Fair Value$31.30
Current Price$39.01
Upside-19.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.65%28.03%0.560.580.300.300.020.280.290.000.030.04
YoY Growth---4.23%91.32%1.41%1,800.29%-94.39%-1.77%0.00%-100.00%-27.11%-13.06%
Dividend Yield--1.48%1.07%0.42%0.59%0.03%0.70%0.00%0.00%0.07%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.8517.4110.44
Cash Retained (M)66.0366.0366.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.85-17.41-10.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.1848.6255.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.71119.71119.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.56$42.32$74.07
Upside / Downside-29.34%8.47%89.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139.24148.29157.93168.20179.13190.78196.50
Payout Ratio52.58%60.06%67.55%75.03%82.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.2289.07106.68126.20147.81171.70181.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)80.9081.6782.44
Year 2 PV (M)88.0189.6991.38
Year 3 PV (M)94.5797.29100.05
Year 4 PV (M)100.61104.48108.46
Year 5 PV (M)106.15111.28116.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,853.831,943.372,036.34
Equity Value (M)2,324.082,427.772,535.27
Shares Outstanding (M)119.71119.71119.71
Fair Value$19.41$20.28$21.18
Upside / Downside-50.23%-48.01%-45.71%

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