Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

GCH Technology Co., Ltd. (688625.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$258.37 - $399.60$374.49
Multi-Stage$65.52 - $71.74$68.57
Blended Fair Value$221.53
Current Price$30.58
Upside624.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.20%69.37%0.900.760.530.300.320.170.030.230.020.15
YoY Growth--18.84%42.42%77.69%-5.69%84.29%451.66%-86.44%1,088.14%-87.12%3,145.22%
Dividend Yield--3.01%3.13%1.63%1.06%1.10%0.59%0.00%0.00%0.07%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)269.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.9533.7220.23
Cash Retained (M)173.53173.53173.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.95-33.72-20.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.58139.81153.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)134.25134.25134.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.041.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.041.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.761.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$258.37$374.49$399.60
Upside / Downside744.89%1,124.62%1,206.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)269.74287.28305.95325.84347.02369.57380.66
Payout Ratio35.67%46.53%57.40%68.27%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.21133.68175.62222.44274.61332.62352.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)124.75125.93127.11
Year 2 PV (M)152.93155.84158.78
Year 3 PV (M)180.75185.94191.23
Year 4 PV (M)208.23216.24224.47
Year 5 PV (M)235.36246.72258.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,893.578,274.838,670.68
Equity Value (M)8,795.589,205.509,630.80
Shares Outstanding (M)134.25134.25134.25
Fair Value$65.52$68.57$71.74
Upside / Downside114.25%124.24%134.60%

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