Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Linkage Software Co., Ltd. (688588.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.47 - $19.74$10.31
Multi-Stage$4.19 - $4.58$4.38
Blended Fair Value$7.34
Current Price$18.61
Upside-60.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.23%23.46%0.220.210.210.210.210.190.090.040.030.11
YoY Growth--5.66%-0.13%0.00%0.00%11.11%100.00%150.00%44.67%-77.67%334.54%
Dividend Yield--1.64%2.04%1.06%1.65%1.06%0.44%0.22%0.09%0.06%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4412.157.29
Cash Retained (M)90.6590.6590.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.44-12.15-7.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.2078.4983.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)389.10389.10389.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.47$10.31$19.74
Upside / Downside-65.22%-44.60%6.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.21103.53110.26117.43125.06133.19137.19
Payout Ratio6.76%23.41%40.05%56.70%73.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.5724.2344.1766.5991.74119.87126.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.0722.2822.49
Year 2 PV (M)36.6437.3438.04
Year 3 PV (M)50.3251.7653.23
Year 4 PV (M)63.1465.5768.07
Year 5 PV (M)75.1578.7882.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,381.561,448.291,517.57
Equity Value (M)1,628.881,704.021,781.95
Shares Outstanding (M)389.10389.10389.10
Fair Value$4.19$4.38$4.58
Upside / Downside-77.51%-76.47%-75.39%

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