Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Limited (688138.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.42 - $103.86$39.48
Multi-Stage$13.85 - $15.13$14.48
Blended Fair Value$26.98
Current Price$32.98
Upside-18.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS65.26%29.84%0.230.140.080.110.080.020.010.010.000.02
YoY Growth--59.11%81.07%-25.43%33.96%328.29%67.38%4.20%229.20%-81.71%5.25%
Dividend Yield--0.88%0.79%0.34%0.71%0.46%0.10%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)195.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.0624.4114.65
Cash Retained (M)118.37118.37118.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.06-24.41-14.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.3193.96103.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)274.04274.04274.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.66
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.42$39.48$103.86
Upside / Downside-32.01%19.70%214.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)195.30207.99221.51235.91251.24267.57275.60
Payout Ratio39.39%49.51%59.63%69.76%79.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.93102.98132.10164.56200.69240.81254.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)94.3095.1996.09
Year 2 PV (M)110.76112.87115.00
Year 3 PV (M)126.35129.97133.67
Year 4 PV (M)141.09146.52152.10
Year 5 PV (M)155.03162.52170.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,166.853,319.813,478.62
Equity Value (M)3,794.383,966.884,145.77
Shares Outstanding (M)274.04274.04274.04
Fair Value$13.85$14.48$15.13
Upside / Downside-58.02%-56.11%-54.13%

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