Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

ArcSoft Corporation Limited (688088.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.66 - $5.19$4.41
Multi-Stage$5.69 - $6.23$5.95
Blended Fair Value$5.18
Current Price$59.30
Upside-91.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.360.120.200.260.100.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--195.68%-37.50%-23.61%158.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.37%0.55%0.89%0.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.7328.5817.15
Cash Retained (M)128.45128.45128.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.73-28.58-17.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.7299.87111.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.04409.04409.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.66$4.41$5.19
Upside / Downside-93.83%-92.56%-91.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.63226.35224.08221.84219.62217.43223.95
Payout Ratio43.82%53.05%62.29%71.53%80.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.18120.09139.58158.68177.38195.69207.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)108.10109.20110.31
Year 2 PV (M)113.11115.43117.77
Year 3 PV (M)115.74119.32122.98
Year 4 PV (M)116.47121.29126.27
Year 5 PV (M)115.66121.68127.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,757.321,848.821,944.10
Equity Value (M)2,326.392,435.752,549.38
Shares Outstanding (M)409.04409.04409.04
Fair Value$5.69$5.95$6.23
Upside / Downside-90.41%-89.96%-89.49%

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