Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qbic Technology Co., Ltd. (6825.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.27 - $36.09$30.58
Multi-Stage$38.12 - $41.94$39.99
Blended Fair Value$35.29
Current Price$32.37
Upside9.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.070.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---28.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.1712.617.56
Cash Retained (M)97.6197.6197.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.17-12.61-7.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)77.4485.0090.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.2227.2227.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.853.123.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.853.123.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.963.243.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.27$30.58$36.09
Upside / Downside-21.94%-5.53%11.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.8799.8698.8697.8796.8995.9298.80
Payout Ratio3.23%20.58%37.94%55.29%72.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.2620.5537.5054.1170.3986.3391.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.5818.7718.96
Year 2 PV (M)30.6531.2831.91
Year 3 PV (M)39.9841.2242.48
Year 4 PV (M)47.0148.9650.97
Year 5 PV (M)52.1354.8457.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)849.18893.40939.44
Equity Value (M)1,037.531,088.471,141.43
Shares Outstanding (M)27.2227.2227.22
Fair Value$38.12$39.99$41.94
Upside / Downside17.77%23.55%29.56%

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