Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anritsu Corporation (6754.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$757.04 - $1,228.07$968.49
Multi-Stage$1,483.02 - $1,629.36$1,554.78
Blended Fair Value$1,261.63
Current Price$1,868.00
Upside-32.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.39%5.27%40.3340.3040.8046.5037.3325.7516.8215.7620.4825.22
YoY Growth--0.08%-1.24%-12.26%24.58%44.96%53.09%6.75%-23.09%-18.78%4.57%
Dividend Yield--2.16%3.31%3.33%3.17%1.80%1.01%0.87%1.04%2.02%4.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,123.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,214.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,909.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,824.601,140.38684.23
Cash Retained (M)3,909.003,909.003,909.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,824.60-1,140.38-684.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,084.402,768.633,224.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.68130.68130.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share15.9521.1924.68
LTM Dividend per Share39.9039.9039.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share15.9521.1924.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend55.8561.0864.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-0.65%0.35%1.35%
Fair Value$757.04$968.49$1,228.07
Upside / Downside-59.47%-48.15%-34.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,123.009,154.579,186.259,218.059,249.959,281.969,560.42
Payout Ratio57.15%63.72%70.29%76.86%83.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,214.005,833.466,457.147,085.077,717.278,353.768,843.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-0.65%0.35%1.35%
Year 1 PV (M)5,413.945,468.445,522.93
Year 2 PV (M)5,561.795,674.335,787.98
Year 3 PV (M)5,663.785,836.546,012.77
Year 4 PV (M)5,725.495,959.536,200.66
Year 5 PV (M)5,752.006,047.386,354.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)165,686.30174,194.72183,049.15
Equity Value (M)193,803.31203,180.92212,928.27
Shares Outstanding (M)130.68130.68130.68
Fair Value$1,483.02$1,554.78$1,629.36
Upside / Downside-20.61%-16.77%-12.77%

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