Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nitto Kohki Co., Ltd. (6151.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$162.02 - $225.75$193.87
Multi-Stage$261.02 - $286.74$273.63
Blended Fair Value$233.75
Current Price$1,750.00
Upside-86.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-13.53%-1.23%36.0260.7644.1945.8537.1974.4985.5563.5357.8747.72
YoY Growth---40.72%37.48%-3.61%23.28%-50.07%-12.93%34.65%9.79%21.28%17.04%
Dividend Yield--1.97%2.51%2.24%3.07%2.07%4.18%3.89%2.45%2.25%2.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)512.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)371.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.4064.0038.40
Cash Retained (M)371.50371.50371.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.40-64.00-38.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)269.10307.50333.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.7118.7118.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.3816.4317.80
LTM Dividend per Share7.517.517.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.3816.4317.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend21.8923.9425.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-3.23%-2.23%-1.23%
Fair Value$162.02$193.87$225.75
Upside / Downside-90.74%-88.92%-87.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)512.00500.57489.39478.47467.78457.34471.06
Payout Ratio27.44%39.95%52.46%64.98%77.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.50199.99256.76310.89362.48411.61435.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-3.23%-2.23%-1.23%
Year 1 PV (M)180.22182.08183.94
Year 2 PV (M)208.49212.82217.19
Year 3 PV (M)227.48234.60241.88
Year 4 PV (M)239.00249.03259.37
Year 5 PV (M)244.55257.45270.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,785.153,984.814,192.81
Equity Value (M)4,884.875,120.795,366.08
Shares Outstanding (M)18.7118.7118.71
Fair Value$261.02$273.63$286.74
Upside / Downside-85.08%-84.36%-83.62%

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