Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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RIDE ON EXPRESS HOLDINGS Co., Ltd. (6082.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$438.77 - $669.20$546.67
Multi-Stage$614.37 - $674.39$643.80
Blended Fair Value$595.24
Current Price$1,002.00
Upside-40.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.72%0.00%14.8729.8631.0732.8321.5010.7410.7710.6610.5410.33
YoY Growth---50.20%-3.90%-5.35%52.67%100.12%-0.25%1.03%1.14%2.01%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.48%2.84%2.94%2.72%1.51%0.41%0.91%0.55%1.04%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)472.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)399.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.4459.0235.41
Cash Retained (M)399.82399.82399.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.44-59.02-35.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)305.38340.79364.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.789.789.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.2434.8637.28
LTM Dividend per Share7.407.407.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.2434.8637.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.6442.2644.68
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate0.15%1.15%2.15%
Fair Value$438.77$546.67$669.20
Upside / Downside-56.21%-45.44%-33.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)472.19477.62483.10488.65494.27499.95514.94
Payout Ratio15.33%30.26%45.20%60.13%75.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.38144.54218.35293.83371.02449.95476.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate0.15%1.15%2.15%
Year 1 PV (M)131.33132.64133.95
Year 2 PV (M)180.27183.88187.54
Year 3 PV (M)220.42227.09233.89
Year 4 PV (M)252.89263.15273.71
Year 5 PV (M)278.67292.86307.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,942.455,194.195,456.07
Equity Value (M)6,006.036,293.816,592.79
Shares Outstanding (M)9.789.789.78
Fair Value$614.37$643.80$674.39
Upside / Downside-38.69%-35.75%-32.70%

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