Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Springsnow Food Group Co., Ltd. (605567.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.88 - $2.89$2.35
Multi-Stage$4.27 - $4.69$4.47
Blended Fair Value$3.41
Current Price$10.07
Upside-66.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-9.09%0.00%0.060.160.100.070.100.090.090.080.000.00
YoY Growth---63.18%50.00%54.52%-35.28%12.45%-0.99%21.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.68%1.60%0.66%0.40%0.61%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.934.962.97
Cash Retained (M)10.2510.2510.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.93-4.96-2.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.325.297.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)193.02193.02193.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.88$2.35$2.89
Upside / Downside-81.35%-76.68%-71.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.6539.2538.8638.4738.0937.7138.84
Payout Ratio74.16%77.33%80.50%83.66%86.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.4130.3531.2832.1933.0733.9435.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)28.1928.4828.77
Year 2 PV (M)26.9927.5428.10
Year 3 PV (M)25.7926.5927.40
Year 4 PV (M)24.6125.6326.69
Year 5 PV (M)23.4624.6825.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)694.35730.50768.15
Equity Value (M)823.39863.43905.06
Shares Outstanding (M)193.02193.02193.02
Fair Value$4.27$4.47$4.69
Upside / Downside-57.64%-55.58%-53.44%

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