Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Xiehe Electronic Co.,Ltd. (605258.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.24 - $11.10$9.04
Multi-Stage$16.41 - $18.02$17.20
Blended Fair Value$13.12
Current Price$33.82
Upside-61.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.87%0.00%0.370.220.330.520.050.320.250.460.270.63
YoY Growth--72.10%-33.53%-37.16%849.85%-83.13%28.80%-45.34%70.59%-57.17%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.21%0.99%1.26%2.11%0.16%0.85%0.66%0.00%0.71%1.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.888.675.20
Cash Retained (M)6.786.786.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.88-8.67-5.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.10-1.891.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)86.6186.6186.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.24$9.04$11.10
Upside / Downside-78.59%-73.26%-67.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.3968.7068.0167.3366.6665.9967.97
Payout Ratio90.23%90.18%90.14%90.09%90.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.6161.9561.3060.6660.0259.3962.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)57.4958.0858.66
Year 2 PV (M)52.7953.8754.97
Year 3 PV (M)48.4749.9751.50
Year 4 PV (M)44.5146.3548.25
Year 5 PV (M)40.8742.9945.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,177.031,238.331,302.14
Equity Value (M)1,421.161,489.591,560.74
Shares Outstanding (M)86.6186.6186.61
Fair Value$16.41$17.20$18.02
Upside / Downside-51.48%-49.15%-46.72%

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