Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changzhou Aohong Electronics Co., Ltd. (605058.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.43 - $14.45$11.77
Multi-Stage$20.80 - $22.87$21.82
Blended Fair Value$16.79
Current Price$29.63
Upside-43.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-32.56%0.00%0.310.300.300.100.312.210.000.610.000.00
YoY Growth--2.12%0.00%200.00%-67.58%-85.95%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.27%1.68%1.38%0.50%1.38%8.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.6018.5011.10
Cash Retained (M)61.6161.6161.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.60-18.50-11.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.0243.1150.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.88141.88141.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.300.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.300.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.43$11.77$14.45
Upside / Downside-68.19%-60.27%-51.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.98146.50145.03143.58142.14140.72144.94
Payout Ratio58.36%64.69%71.02%77.35%83.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.3694.77103.00111.05118.94126.65134.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)87.9488.8489.74
Year 2 PV (M)88.6990.5192.35
Year 3 PV (M)88.7491.4894.28
Year 4 PV (M)88.1991.8595.61
Year 5 PV (M)87.1591.6896.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,510.242,640.952,777.06
Equity Value (M)2,950.953,095.323,245.45
Shares Outstanding (M)141.88141.88141.88
Fair Value$20.80$21.82$22.87
Upside / Downside-29.81%-26.37%-22.80%

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