Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hunan Aihua Group Co., Ltd (603989.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.92 - $9.46$7.53
Multi-Stage$7.12 - $7.79$7.45
Blended Fair Value$7.49
Current Price$18.61
Upside-59.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.28%3.87%0.360.350.330.330.300.310.610.590.530.66
YoY Growth--3.98%4.86%-0.21%8.93%-0.85%-49.98%3.06%12.69%-20.25%168.57%
Dividend Yield--2.32%1.96%1.27%1.22%1.03%1.35%2.88%1.96%1.87%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)221.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.2427.6516.59
Cash Retained (M)151.67151.67151.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.24-27.65-16.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.43124.02135.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)398.50398.50398.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Fair Value$5.92$7.53$9.46
Upside / Downside-68.18%-59.56%-49.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)221.19227.54234.08240.80247.72254.84262.48
Payout Ratio31.43%43.14%54.86%66.57%78.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.5298.17128.41160.31193.93229.36242.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)88.7789.6590.52
Year 2 PV (M)105.00107.08109.17
Year 3 PV (M)118.54122.06125.66
Year 4 PV (M)129.67134.84140.16
Year 5 PV (M)138.68145.62152.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,254.822,367.692,485.02
Equity Value (M)2,835.502,966.933,103.37
Shares Outstanding (M)398.50398.50398.50
Fair Value$7.12$7.45$7.79
Upside / Downside-61.77%-59.99%-58.15%

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