Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SEC Electric Machinery Co., Ltd. (603988.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.55 - $2.29$1.90
Multi-Stage$2.43 - $2.67$2.55
Blended Fair Value$2.22
Current Price$28.09
Upside-92.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.05%0.00%0.060.070.060.940.490.410.200.050.060.07
YoY Growth---8.81%16.46%-93.58%89.25%20.78%108.45%262.00%-11.76%-15.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.74%0.58%9.13%2.98%4.74%1.57%0.33%0.26%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.505.313.19
Cash Retained (M)32.4332.4332.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.50-5.31-3.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.9327.1129.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)221.21221.21221.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate-1.08%-0.08%0.92%
Fair Value$1.55$1.90$2.29
Upside / Downside-94.49%-93.22%-91.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.5142.4842.4442.4142.3842.3543.62
Payout Ratio23.72%36.97%50.23%63.49%76.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.0815.7021.3226.9332.5238.1140.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate-1.08%-0.08%0.92%
Year 1 PV (M)14.3014.4414.59
Year 2 PV (M)17.6718.0318.39
Year 3 PV (M)20.3120.9421.57
Year 4 PV (M)22.3423.2524.20
Year 5 PV (M)23.8325.0626.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)438.77461.40484.96
Equity Value (M)537.22563.12590.04
Shares Outstanding (M)221.21221.21221.21
Fair Value$2.43$2.55$2.67
Upside / Downside-91.35%-90.94%-90.50%

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