Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Kindly Enterprise Development Group Co.,LTD. (603987.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.29 - $42.78$22.64
Multi-Stage$9.93 - $10.85$10.39
Blended Fair Value$16.51
Current Price$9.02
Upside83.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.26%14.96%0.220.280.310.060.200.150.110.080.360.08
YoY Growth---23.48%-9.28%450.17%-71.76%31.64%39.21%41.35%-78.45%375.42%40.92%
Dividend Yield--2.94%3.68%1.99%0.29%0.98%1.39%1.38%0.90%2.65%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)243.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.7730.4818.29
Cash Retained (M)160.10160.10160.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.77-30.48-18.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.34129.63141.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)435.86435.86435.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Fair Value$14.29$22.64$42.78
Upside / Downside58.38%150.99%374.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)243.83259.09275.30292.53310.83330.29340.20
Payout Ratio34.34%45.47%56.60%67.73%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.72117.81155.83198.14245.15297.26314.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Year 1 PV (M)107.50108.52109.54
Year 2 PV (M)129.75132.23134.73
Year 3 PV (M)150.56154.89159.30
Year 4 PV (M)169.98176.53183.27
Year 5 PV (M)188.08197.19206.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,583.863,757.373,937.53
Equity Value (M)4,329.734,526.724,731.02
Shares Outstanding (M)435.86435.86435.86
Fair Value$9.93$10.39$10.85
Upside / Downside10.13%15.14%20.34%

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