Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Olympic Circuit Technology Co., Ltd (603920.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$194.83 - $229.54$215.11
Multi-Stage$158.19 - $173.59$165.75
Blended Fair Value$190.43
Current Price$45.59
Upside317.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.98%24.88%0.490.470.470.350.290.260.270.010.190.19
YoY Growth--4.05%-0.24%32.33%20.04%11.66%-0.64%3,444.33%-96.10%3.59%252.73%
Dividend Yield--1.63%2.51%2.55%2.09%2.29%1.88%2.41%0.06%1.15%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)816.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)436.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)380.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163.40102.1261.27
Cash Retained (M)380.76380.76380.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-163.40-102.12-61.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)217.36278.63319.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)707.85707.85707.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate-1.22%-1.22%-1.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$194.83$215.11$229.54
Upside / Downside327.35%371.84%403.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)816.99870.10926.65986.891,051.041,119.351,152.93
Payout Ratio53.40%60.72%68.04%75.36%82.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)436.24528.29630.47743.70868.991,007.421,066.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.22%-1.22%-1.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)529.79534.81539.83
Year 2 PV (M)634.04646.12658.31
Year 3 PV (M)750.03771.56793.50
Year 4 PV (M)878.86912.65947.42
Year 5 PV (M)1,021.741,071.091,122.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,162.63113,386.92118,811.17
Equity Value (M)111,977.08117,323.15122,872.55
Shares Outstanding (M)707.85707.85707.85
Fair Value$158.19$165.75$173.59
Upside / Downside246.99%263.56%280.75%

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