Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (603890.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.09 - $137.96$129.29
Multi-Stage$39.90 - $43.75$41.79
Blended Fair Value$85.54
Current Price$13.89
Upside515.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.41%1.96%0.060.170.160.230.170.150.090.020.080.06
YoY Growth---61.39%6.12%-31.90%38.44%12.14%60.78%430.21%-79.11%47.60%6.62%
Dividend Yield--0.53%1.67%1.64%2.31%1.25%1.59%1.20%0.14%0.67%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)301.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)221.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.2837.6722.60
Cash Retained (M)221.03221.03221.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.28-37.67-22.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.76183.36198.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)434.46434.46434.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate4.82%4.82%4.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$117.09$129.29$137.96
Upside / Downside743.01%830.79%893.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)301.38320.97341.83364.05387.72412.92425.31
Payout Ratio26.66%39.33%52.00%64.66%77.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.35126.23177.74235.41299.83371.63393.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.82%4.82%4.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.30120.43121.56
Year 2 PV (M)158.76161.78164.83
Year 3 PV (M)198.73204.43210.24
Year 4 PV (M)239.21248.41257.87
Year 5 PV (M)280.21293.75307.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,338.2917,127.4317,946.78
Equity Value (M)17,334.5018,156.2419,009.09
Shares Outstanding (M)434.46434.46434.46
Fair Value$39.90$41.79$43.75
Upside / Downside187.25%200.87%215.00%

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