Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.,Ltd. (603816.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.79 - $90.29$57.84
Multi-Stage$27.90 - $30.51$29.18
Blended Fair Value$43.51
Current Price$30.17
Upside44.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.35%13.70%1.371.241.090.660.900.620.540.360.200.60
YoY Growth--10.66%14.02%63.45%-26.28%46.38%14.06%50.13%82.37%-67.00%57.50%
Dividend Yield--5.34%3.31%2.68%1.41%1.45%2.28%1.58%1.03%0.72%3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,596.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,517.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)319.29199.55119.73
Cash Retained (M)1,517.011,517.011,517.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-319.29-199.55-119.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,197.731,317.461,397.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)814.07814.07814.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.471.621.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.471.621.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.571.721.81
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.79$57.84$90.29
Upside / Downside31.89%91.70%199.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,596.431,700.201,810.711,928.412,053.752,187.252,252.87
Payout Ratio4.97%21.98%38.98%55.99%72.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.42373.70705.901,079.711,499.141,968.522,083.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)337.58340.78343.98
Year 2 PV (M)576.05587.02598.09
Year 3 PV (M)795.93818.78842.06
Year 4 PV (M)998.311,036.701,076.19
Year 5 PV (M)1,184.191,241.381,300.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,823.6019,732.7820,676.77
Equity Value (M)22,715.6523,757.4524,837.86
Shares Outstanding (M)814.07814.07814.07
Fair Value$27.90$29.18$30.51
Upside / Downside-7.51%-3.27%1.13%

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