Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TKD Science and Technology Co.,Ltd. (603738.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.82 - $3.86$2.59
Multi-Stage$1.44 - $1.57$1.50
Blended Fair Value$2.05
Current Price$15.66
Upside-86.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.55%9.63%0.080.150.190.180.030.040.070.050.040.04
YoY Growth---47.39%-22.64%5.24%426.84%-4.69%-45.21%22.20%33.35%9.21%19.55%
Dividend Yield--0.50%1.06%1.01%1.01%0.31%0.28%0.75%0.53%0.30%0.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.644.772.86
Cash Retained (M)7.437.437.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.64-4.77-2.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.212.664.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)393.38393.38393.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.82$2.59$3.86
Upside / Downside-88.37%-83.49%-75.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.1840.6743.3146.1349.1252.3253.89
Payout Ratio80.55%82.44%84.33%86.22%88.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.7633.5236.5239.7743.2847.0849.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.1930.4830.76
Year 2 PV (M)29.6230.1930.75
Year 3 PV (M)29.0529.8830.73
Year 4 PV (M)28.4729.5730.69
Year 5 PV (M)27.8929.2430.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)421.96442.34463.50
Equity Value (M)567.18591.69617.08
Shares Outstanding (M)393.38393.38393.38
Fair Value$1.44$1.50$1.57
Upside / Downside-90.79%-90.40%-89.98%

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