Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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XIANGPIAOPIAO Food Co.,Ltd (603711.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.56 - $7.63$5.91
Multi-Stage$4.92 - $5.40$5.16
Blended Fair Value$5.53
Current Price$13.04
Upside-57.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.98%52.12%0.400.200.230.440.310.270.110.270.010.00
YoY Growth--94.31%-11.84%-47.21%39.01%16.75%154.72%-60.16%3,442.26%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.91%1.21%1.20%3.34%1.49%0.96%0.33%1.23%0.04%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)146.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)136.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.2518.2810.97
Cash Retained (M)136.65136.65136.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.25-18.28-10.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.40118.37125.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)388.95388.95388.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate2.62%3.62%4.62%
Fair Value$4.56$5.91$7.63
Upside / Downside-65.03%-54.68%-41.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)146.25151.54157.03162.71168.60174.70179.94
Payout Ratio6.57%23.25%39.94%56.63%73.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.6035.2462.7292.14123.60157.23166.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate2.62%3.62%4.62%
Year 1 PV (M)31.9032.2232.53
Year 2 PV (M)51.4152.4253.43
Year 3 PV (M)68.3870.3972.45
Year 4 PV (M)83.0586.3389.71
Year 5 PV (M)95.64100.39105.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,585.201,663.961,745.81
Equity Value (M)1,915.572,005.702,099.27
Shares Outstanding (M)388.95388.95388.95
Fair Value$4.92$5.16$5.40
Upside / Downside-62.23%-60.45%-58.61%

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