Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. (603699.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$154.34 - $377.99$354.24
Multi-Stage$56.72 - $61.99$59.31
Blended Fair Value$206.77
Current Price$44.81
Upside361.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.35%9.92%0.940.400.260.480.410.660.160.180.260.42
YoY Growth--135.81%52.67%-45.53%15.07%-36.81%314.76%-10.28%-31.63%-38.04%14.56%
Dividend Yield--3.36%2.32%2.10%5.47%3.18%5.19%1.25%0.91%1.54%2.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,441.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,180.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)260.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)288.30180.19108.11
Cash Retained (M)260.64260.64260.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-288.30-180.19-108.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27.6680.45152.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)758.43758.43758.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.110.20
LTM Dividend per Share1.561.561.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.110.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.521.661.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$154.34$354.24$377.99
Upside / Downside244.43%690.53%743.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,441.521,535.221,635.011,741.281,854.471,975.012,034.26
Payout Ratio81.92%83.54%85.15%86.77%88.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,180.881,282.451,392.231,510.871,639.051,777.501,881.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,192.431,203.731,215.03
Year 2 PV (M)1,203.641,226.571,249.71
Year 3 PV (M)1,214.521,249.391,284.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,225.071,272.191,320.65
Year 5 PV (M)1,235.311,294.971,356.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,947.5238,732.1040,584.98
Equity Value (M)43,018.4944,978.9447,012.20
Shares Outstanding (M)758.43758.43758.43
Fair Value$56.72$59.31$61.99
Upside / Downside26.58%32.35%38.33%

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