Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Province Natural Gas DevelopmentCo.,Ltd. (603689.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.64 - $106.37$54.80
Multi-Stage$12.64 - $13.80$13.21
Blended Fair Value$34.01
Current Price$8.50
Upside300.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.16%19.77%0.370.240.190.150.160.130.100.050.050.07
YoY Growth--58.05%22.38%30.04%-5.93%24.69%27.00%101.96%0.40%-26.28%8.44%
Dividend Yield--4.38%2.77%2.42%2.19%2.06%1.68%1.15%0.60%0.34%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)311.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)218.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)93.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.3938.9923.40
Cash Retained (M)93.7793.7793.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.39-38.99-23.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.3854.7870.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)583.23583.23583.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.64$54.80$106.37
Upside / Downside178.13%544.73%1,151.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)311.95332.23353.82376.82401.31427.40440.22
Payout Ratio69.94%73.95%77.96%81.98%85.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)218.17245.69275.85308.90345.08384.66407.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)226.59228.74230.88
Year 2 PV (M)234.64239.10243.62
Year 3 PV (M)242.32249.28256.37
Year 4 PV (M)249.67259.27269.14
Year 5 PV (M)256.67269.07281.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,161.986,459.616,768.62
Equity Value (M)7,371.877,705.068,050.58
Shares Outstanding (M)583.23583.23583.23
Fair Value$12.64$13.21$13.80
Upside / Downside48.70%55.42%62.39%

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