Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group Corp., Ltd. (603619.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.70 - $226.20$211.98
Multi-Stage$34.24 - $37.49$35.83
Blended Fair Value$123.91
Current Price$19.49
Upside535.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.08%16.12%1.330.550.280.190.170.160.350.140.060.13
YoY Growth--141.86%93.41%46.82%15.62%5.87%-54.95%144.33%129.00%-52.06%-56.13%
Dividend Yield--7.40%2.17%1.75%1.30%1.78%1.23%1.96%0.38%0.19%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)510.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)347.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.1463.8438.30
Cash Retained (M)347.68347.68347.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.14-63.84-38.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)245.54283.84309.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)449.02449.02449.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$106.70$211.98$226.20
Upside / Downside447.45%987.64%1,060.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)510.71543.91579.26616.91657.01699.72720.71
Payout Ratio31.92%43.54%55.15%66.77%78.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.03236.81319.48411.91514.99629.74666.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)220.47222.56224.65
Year 2 PV (M)276.93282.21287.53
Year 3 PV (M)332.42341.96351.68
Year 4 PV (M)386.95401.83417.14
Year 5 PV (M)440.53461.81483.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,717.4714,380.0215,067.94
Equity Value (M)15,374.7716,090.3916,832.85
Shares Outstanding (M)449.02449.02449.02
Fair Value$34.24$35.83$37.49
Upside / Downside75.68%83.86%92.34%

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