Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co., Ltd. (603558.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.35 - $209.23$196.08
Multi-Stage$32.37 - $35.43$33.87
Blended Fair Value$114.97
Current Price$9.96
Upside1,054.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.49%14.38%0.550.680.160.100.400.060.180.110.110.10
YoY Growth---18.54%317.56%59.56%-74.49%600.00%-67.86%68.57%0.00%2.92%-29.06%
Dividend Yield--5.64%6.25%1.93%0.88%4.58%0.67%1.68%1.02%0.41%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)370.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)243.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.0746.2927.78
Cash Retained (M)243.13243.13243.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.07-46.29-27.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)169.07196.84215.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)352.01352.01352.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$106.35$196.08$209.23
Upside / Downside967.82%1,868.63%2,000.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)370.34394.41420.04447.35476.42507.39522.61
Payout Ratio34.35%45.48%56.61%67.74%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.20179.37237.78303.03375.75456.65483.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)167.10168.68170.27
Year 2 PV (M)206.36210.29214.26
Year 3 PV (M)245.00252.03259.20
Year 4 PV (M)283.02293.90305.10
Year 5 PV (M)320.42335.90351.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,171.3510,662.6311,172.71
Equity Value (M)11,393.2511,923.4412,473.50
Shares Outstanding (M)352.01352.01352.01
Fair Value$32.37$33.87$35.43
Upside / Downside224.96%240.08%255.77%

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