Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Ellington Electronics Technology Co.,Ltd (603328.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.99 - $6.07$4.96
Multi-Stage$4.91 - $5.39$5.15
Blended Fair Value$5.05
Current Price$11.75
Upside-56.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-33.05%20.86%0.200.150.070.100.471.450.850.750.220.08
YoY Growth--29.11%113.23%-29.02%-78.72%-67.64%69.93%14.32%239.25%164.71%183.33%
Dividend Yield--1.93%2.11%0.94%1.61%6.81%14.07%7.07%5.93%1.30%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)437.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)431.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.5254.7032.82
Cash Retained (M)431.03431.03431.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.52-54.70-32.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)343.51376.33398.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)998.47998.47998.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate0.92%1.92%2.92%
Fair Value$3.99$4.96$6.07
Upside / Downside-66.07%-57.77%-48.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)437.58446.00454.58463.33472.25481.34495.78
Payout Ratio1.50%19.20%36.90%54.60%72.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.5585.62167.73252.97341.43433.21458.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate0.92%1.92%2.92%
Year 1 PV (M)77.2177.9878.74
Year 2 PV (M)136.41139.13141.87
Year 3 PV (M)185.53191.10196.78
Year 4 PV (M)225.81234.90244.25
Year 5 PV (M)258.37271.43285.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,021.594,224.824,436.18
Equity Value (M)4,904.935,139.355,382.83
Shares Outstanding (M)998.47998.47998.47
Fair Value$4.91$5.15$5.39
Upside / Downside-58.19%-56.19%-54.12%

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