Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Secote Precision Electronic Co.,LTD (603283.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$402.58 - $474.31$444.50
Multi-Stage$278.79 - $305.97$292.13
Blended Fair Value$368.31
Current Price$47.40
Upside677.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.35%34.20%0.090.590.410.780.590.310.170.170.010.28
YoY Growth---85.39%42.62%-47.12%32.97%92.76%76.00%5.21%2,883.75%-98.04%6,106.03%
Dividend Yield--0.20%1.09%1.25%5.48%3.28%1.14%1.20%0.73%0.08%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)480.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)355.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.0260.0136.01
Cash Retained (M)355.35355.35355.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.02-60.01-36.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.33295.34319.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)201.31201.31201.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.291.471.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.291.471.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.912.092.21
WACC / Discount Rate1.91%1.91%1.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$402.58$444.50$474.31
Upside / Downside749.33%837.76%900.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)480.11511.31544.55579.95617.64657.79677.52
Payout Ratio25.98%38.79%51.59%64.39%77.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.75198.33280.94373.45476.80592.01626.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.91%1.91%1.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)192.78194.61196.43
Year 2 PV (M)265.44270.50275.60
Year 3 PV (M)342.98352.82362.86
Year 4 PV (M)425.65442.02458.85
Year 5 PV (M)513.71538.53564.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,382.3457,009.0359,736.24
Equity Value (M)56,122.9058,807.5061,594.28
Shares Outstanding (M)201.31201.31201.31
Fair Value$278.79$292.13$305.97
Upside / Downside488.17%516.31%545.51%

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