Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Nerin Engineering Co Ltd (603257.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.84 - $235.93$151.60
Multi-Stage$116.19 - $128.34$122.15
Blended Fair Value$136.87
Current Price$63.56
Upside115.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.560.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9716.8610.11
Cash Retained (M)45.4345.4345.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.97-16.86-10.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.4628.5735.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.74105.74105.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.270.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.270.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.121.18
WACC / Discount Rate-0.27%-0.27%-0.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$57.84$151.60$235.93
Upside / Downside-9.01%138.51%271.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.85133.50132.16130.84129.53128.24132.08
Payout Ratio66.31%71.05%75.79%80.52%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89.4294.85100.16105.36110.44115.41122.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.27%-0.27%-0.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)94.1495.1096.07
Year 2 PV (M)98.68100.71102.75
Year 3 PV (M)103.03106.22109.47
Year 4 PV (M)107.21111.65116.23
Year 5 PV (M)111.20116.99123.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,771.8712,384.8613,023.12
Equity Value (M)12,286.1412,915.5313,570.66
Shares Outstanding (M)105.74105.74105.74
Fair Value$116.19$122.15$128.34
Upside / Downside82.81%92.18%101.92%

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