Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $4.85 - $11.89 | $7.24 |
| Multi-Stage | $3.32 - $3.63 | $3.47 |
| Blended Fair Value | $5.35 | |
| Current Price | $10.20 | |
| Upside | -47.52% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 57.10% | 32.52% | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 77.50% | 62.05% | 63.20% | 49.50% | 36.36% | -21.43% | 277.42% | -46.12% | 30.34% | -16.19% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.22% | 0.75% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.18% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.27% | 0.21% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 184.84 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5.56 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 179.28 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 36.97 | 23.10 | 13.86 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 179.28 | 179.28 | 179.28 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -36.97 | -23.10 | -13.86 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 142.31 | 156.17 | 165.42 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 833.80 | 833.80 | 833.80 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.35% | 9.35% | 9.35% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $4.85 | $7.24 | $11.89 |
| Upside / Downside | -52.41% | -29.05% | 16.54% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 184.84 | 196.85 | 209.65 | 223.27 | 237.79 | 253.24 | 260.84 |
| Payout Ratio | 3.01% | 20.41% | 37.80% | 55.20% | 72.60% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5.56 | 40.17 | 79.26 | 123.25 | 172.64 | 227.92 | 241.28 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.35% | 9.35% | 9.35% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 36.39 | 36.73 | 37.08 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 65.04 | 66.28 | 67.53 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 91.62 | 94.25 | 96.93 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 116.25 | 120.72 | 125.32 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 139.03 | 145.75 | 152.72 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,316.19 | 2,428.06 | 2,544.22 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,764.52 | 2,891.80 | 3,023.80 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 833.80 | 833.80 | 833.80 |
| Fair Value | $3.32 | $3.47 | $3.63 |
| Upside / Downside | -67.49% | -66.00% | -64.45% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | 0.55% | $0.71 | 28.86% |
| UHS | Universal Health Services, Inc. | 0.55% | $1.21 | 5.70% |
| 0I0T.L | Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.81 | 11.41% |
| HSTM | HealthStream, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.12 | 17.69% |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 0.54% | $5.79 | 28.28% |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corporation | 0.54% | $0.32 | 64.31% |
| TRU | TransUnion | 0.54% | $0.45 | 21.24% |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 0.54% | $0.89 | 26.39% |
| 0R2Z.L | Mastercard Incorporated | 0.52% | $2.96 | 18.79% |
| DHR | Danaher Corporation | 0.52% | $1.19 | 24.18% |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | 0.52% | $0.87 | 21.15% |
| 0JT5.L | Lam Research Corporation | 0.51% | $0.93 | 20.32% |
| 0JZ0.L | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 0.51% | $3.22 | 16.93% |
| EVTC | EVERTEC, Inc. | 0.51% | $0.15 | 6.55% |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | 0.51% | $2.01 | 6.83% |
| MUSA | Murphy USA Inc. | 0.51% | $2.05 | 8.36% |
| PCG | Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | 0.51% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CHE | Chemed Corporation | 0.50% | $2.11 | 11.01% |
| FBIO | Fortress Biotech, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.02 | 16.65% |
| HWKN | Hawkins, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.73 | 18.33% |
| NMRK | Newmark Group, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.08 | 20.64% |
| PRLH | Pearl Holdings Acquisition Corp | 0.50% | $0.06 | 54.69% |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | 0.48% | $1.02 | 7.46% |
| FCAX | Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp. | 0.48% | $0.05 | 6.11% |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation | 0.48% | $0.54 | 13.95% |
| AAON | AAON, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.37 | 30.87% |
| CR | Crane Company | 0.47% | $0.88 | 14.07% |
| HGTY | Hagerty, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.06 | 12.93% |
| IDCC | InterDigital, Inc. | 0.47% | $1.55 | 10.87% |
| PCG-PI | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 4.36% | 0.47% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| SEB | Seaboard Corporation | 0.47% | $20.86 | 5.03% |
| AMEH | Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.18 | 93.62% |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | 0.46% | $0.23 | 7.15% |
| KAI | Kadant Inc. | 0.46% | $1.32 | 15.23% |
| PRGS | Progress Software Corporation | 0.46% | $0.19 | 17.10% |
| UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | 0.46% | $2.60 | 19.86% |
| WWE | World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.46 | 21.62% |
| APH | Amphenol Corporation | 0.45% | $0.62 | 20.92% |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 0.45% | $0.50 | 7.30% |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.40 | 21.08% |
| PCG-PC | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 5% | 0.45% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.68 | 11.54% |
| REVG | REV Group, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.27 | 14.08% |
| RYAN | Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.22 | 87.54% |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | 0.44% | $0.16 | 14.97% |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 0.44% | $0.96 | 13.90% |
| WING | Wingstop Inc. | 0.44% | $1.14 | 18.31% |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 0.43% | $0.46 | 15.57% |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.28 | 13.63% |
| MTRN | Materion Corporation | 0.42% | $0.55 | 58.77% |