Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co., Ltd. (603228.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$221.57 - $261.04$244.64
Multi-Stage$176.55 - $193.71$184.97
Blended Fair Value$214.81
Current Price$62.97
Upside241.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.70%12.98%0.480.510.300.280.200.350.220.270.130.03
YoY Growth---5.28%70.83%7.26%37.04%-41.85%58.26%-18.08%107.82%274.27%-75.70%
Dividend Yield--1.41%2.48%1.17%1.18%0.77%1.12%0.66%1.00%0.54%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,212.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)756.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)456.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)242.54151.5990.95
Cash Retained (M)456.32456.32456.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-242.54-151.59-90.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)213.77304.73365.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)923.91923.91923.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.330.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.330.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate-0.81%-0.81%-0.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$221.57$244.64$261.04
Upside / Downside251.86%288.50%314.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,212.721,291.551,375.501,464.911,560.131,661.541,711.38
Payout Ratio62.37%67.90%73.42%78.95%84.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)756.40876.941,009.941,156.531,317.911,495.381,583.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.81%-0.81%-0.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)875.81884.11892.41
Year 2 PV (M)1,007.341,026.531,045.90
Year 3 PV (M)1,152.071,185.141,218.84
Year 4 PV (M)1,311.131,361.561,413.42
Year 5 PV (M)1,485.781,557.541,632.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)157,286.02164,882.99172,770.72
Equity Value (M)163,118.14170,897.86178,973.33
Shares Outstanding (M)923.91923.91923.91
Fair Value$176.55$184.97$193.71
Upside / Downside180.38%193.75%207.63%

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