Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Emperor of Cleaning Hi-Tech Co., Ltd (603200.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.79 - $5.27$4.53
Multi-Stage$7.30 - $8.05$7.67
Blended Fair Value$6.10
Current Price$90.79
Upside-93.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.92%0.00%0.120.120.100.100.040.140.340.000.000.00
YoY Growth--5.42%13.99%-2.37%194.02%-75.00%-58.83%2,649,662.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.34%0.49%0.45%0.67%0.23%0.51%2.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)91.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.8014.258.55
Cash Retained (M)91.1591.1591.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.80-14.25-8.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.3576.9082.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)175.46175.46175.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate-4.66%-3.66%-2.66%
Fair Value$3.79$4.53$5.27
Upside / Downside-95.83%-95.01%-94.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.01109.84105.82101.9598.2294.6297.46
Payout Ratio20.05%34.04%48.03%62.02%76.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.8637.3950.8263.2374.6585.1690.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate-4.66%-3.66%-2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)34.1234.4834.84
Year 2 PV (M)42.3343.2344.13
Year 3 PV (M)48.0749.5951.15
Year 4 PV (M)51.8054.0056.28
Year 5 PV (M)53.9256.8159.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,050.941,107.221,165.89
Equity Value (M)1,281.181,345.341,412.12
Shares Outstanding (M)175.46175.46175.46
Fair Value$7.30$7.67$8.05
Upside / Downside-91.96%-91.55%-91.14%

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