Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Institute of Building Science Group Co.,Ltd (603183.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.80 - $4.21$2.65
Multi-Stage$1.30 - $1.42$1.36
Blended Fair Value$2.00
Current Price$4.34
Upside-53.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.26%62.54%0.050.040.060.060.050.030.040.020.000.03
YoY Growth--12.65%-25.22%5.77%7.90%85.43%-33.66%100.00%66,892.56%-99.89%7,335.33%
Dividend Yield--1.23%1.17%1.30%0.97%1.06%0.72%0.75%0.25%0.00%0.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.095.053.03
Cash Retained (M)26.1926.1926.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.09-5.05-3.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.1021.1323.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)469.58469.58469.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.80$2.65$4.21
Upside / Downside-58.48%-39.04%-2.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.4443.0745.8748.8552.0255.4057.07
Payout Ratio35.25%46.20%57.15%68.10%79.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.2519.9026.2133.2641.1249.8652.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17.9918.1618.33
Year 2 PV (M)21.4421.8522.26
Year 3 PV (M)24.6125.3126.03
Year 4 PV (M)27.5128.5729.66
Year 5 PV (M)30.1731.6333.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)488.84512.45536.96
Equity Value (M)610.56637.97666.39
Shares Outstanding (M)469.58469.58469.58
Fair Value$1.30$1.36$1.42
Upside / Downside-70.04%-68.70%-67.30%

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