Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals. (603087.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.38 - $24.09$19.38
Multi-Stage$30.40 - $33.32$31.83
Blended Fair Value$25.61
Current Price$75.90
Upside-66.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%107.61%0.710.000.290.380.340.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-25.00%12.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-18.67%887.12%
Dividend Yield--1.58%0.00%0.76%0.73%0.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)925.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)899.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.15115.7269.43
Cash Retained (M)25.9125.9125.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.15-115.72-69.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-159.23-89.80-43.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)589.25589.25589.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.27-0.15-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.531.531.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.27-0.15-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.371.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-0.98%0.02%1.02%
Fair Value$15.38$19.38$24.09
Upside / Downside-79.74%-74.46%-68.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)925.74925.90926.06926.22926.38926.54954.34
Payout Ratio97.20%95.76%94.32%92.88%91.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)899.82886.65873.46860.28847.08833.89882.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-0.98%0.02%1.02%
Year 1 PV (M)819.51827.79836.06
Year 2 PV (M)746.20761.34776.64
Year 3 PV (M)679.28700.07721.28
Year 4 PV (M)618.22643.57669.70
Year 5 PV (M)562.51591.49621.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,487.0315,233.4916,010.42
Equity Value (M)17,912.7418,757.7619,635.77
Shares Outstanding (M)589.25589.25589.25
Fair Value$30.40$31.83$33.32
Upside / Downside-59.95%-58.06%-56.10%

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