Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co.,Ltd. (603067.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$164.81 - $194.18$181.98
Multi-Stage$277.96 - $305.15$291.30
Blended Fair Value$236.64
Current Price$18.57
Upside1,174.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.66%0.00%0.230.260.230.150.090.070.060.050.020.00
YoY Growth---11.96%10.86%54.22%72.49%25.59%21.74%26.61%136.29%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.81%4.01%2.49%1.83%1.53%1.89%1.05%0.86%0.20%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)518.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)161.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)357.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.7164.8238.89
Cash Retained (M)357.35357.35357.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.71-64.82-38.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.64292.53318.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)531.11531.11531.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate-14.81%-14.81%-14.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$164.81$181.98$194.18
Upside / Downside787.53%879.94%945.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)518.57552.27588.17626.40667.12710.48731.80
Payout Ratio31.09%42.87%54.65%66.44%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)161.22236.77321.46416.15521.81639.43676.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-14.81%-14.81%-14.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)275.33277.94280.55
Year 2 PV (M)434.70442.98451.34
Year 3 PV (M)654.42673.21692.35
Year 4 PV (M)954.21990.911,028.65
Year 5 PV (M)1,359.771,425.451,493.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)143,946.83150,899.52158,118.30
Equity Value (M)147,625.26154,710.00162,064.83
Shares Outstanding (M)531.11531.11531.11
Fair Value$277.96$291.30$305.15
Upside / Downside1,396.81%1,468.65%1,543.22%

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