Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou XZB Tech Co.,Ltd (603040.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.29 - $76.98$51.52
Multi-Stage$27.54 - $30.02$28.76
Blended Fair Value$40.14
Current Price$84.02
Upside-52.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.95%22.18%0.610.500.300.380.300.240.240.130.100.11
YoY Growth--21.84%69.36%-22.00%28.68%24.96%-0.71%90.65%20.43%-6.06%33.78%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.34%1.45%2.30%1.39%1.46%1.32%0.41%0.26%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)259.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)122.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.8832.4319.46
Cash Retained (M)137.02137.02137.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.88-32.43-19.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.14104.59117.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)134.10134.10134.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.780.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.780.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.551.691.79
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.29$51.52$76.98
Upside / Downside-56.81%-38.68%-8.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)259.41276.27294.23313.36333.72355.42366.08
Payout Ratio47.18%55.75%64.31%72.87%81.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)122.39154.01189.22228.35271.77319.88338.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)138.70140.01141.33
Year 2 PV (M)153.46156.38159.33
Year 3 PV (M)166.78171.57176.45
Year 4 PV (M)178.76185.63192.71
Year 5 PV (M)189.48198.63208.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,866.063,004.493,148.22
Equity Value (M)3,693.233,856.724,026.16
Shares Outstanding (M)134.10134.10134.10
Fair Value$27.54$28.76$30.02
Upside / Downside-67.22%-65.77%-64.27%

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