Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Southern Publishing and Media Co.,Ltd. (601900.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.65 - $83.21$47.20
Multi-Stage$20.41 - $22.32$21.35
Blended Fair Value$34.28
Current Price$13.14
Upside160.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.32%24.53%0.590.520.640.710.270.290.230.260.170.03
YoY Growth--13.62%-19.48%-9.78%161.83%-5.63%27.44%-14.02%55.50%551.29%-60.37%
Dividend Yield--3.71%3.24%6.57%8.23%3.39%2.86%2.32%2.52%1.16%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,131.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,062.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)226.24141.4084.84
Cash Retained (M)1,062.331,062.331,062.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-226.24-141.40-84.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)836.09920.93977.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)881.39881.39881.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.041.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.041.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.121.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.65$47.20$83.21
Upside / Downside133.29%259.23%533.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,131.201,204.731,283.031,366.431,455.251,549.841,596.33
Payout Ratio6.09%22.87%39.65%56.44%73.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.87275.53508.76771.151,065.501,394.851,476.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)250.33252.70255.07
Year 2 PV (M)419.95427.95436.02
Year 3 PV (M)578.31594.92611.83
Year 4 PV (M)725.97753.89782.61
Year 5 PV (M)863.45905.16948.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,149.3115,881.0316,640.75
Equity Value (M)17,987.3318,815.6419,674.75
Shares Outstanding (M)881.39881.39881.39
Fair Value$20.41$21.35$22.32
Upside / Downside55.31%62.46%69.88%

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