Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ZCZL Industrial Technology Group Company Limited Class A (601717.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.97 - $183.02$100.06
Multi-Stage$41.92 - $45.87$43.86
Blended Fair Value$71.96
Current Price$24.85
Upside189.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.99%20.50%0.990.770.590.580.280.210.110.030.010.04
YoY Growth--28.03%31.95%1.75%103.47%37.96%79.89%268.12%319.08%-80.02%-75.88%
Dividend Yield--6.25%5.03%4.17%4.19%2.46%3.72%1.76%0.48%0.09%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,520.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,322.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)904.02565.01339.01
Cash Retained (M)4,322.764,322.764,322.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-904.02-565.01-339.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,418.733,757.743,983.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,753.761,753.761,753.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.952.142.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.952.142.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.262.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.97$100.06$183.02
Upside / Downside157.44%302.66%636.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,520.124,813.935,126.835,460.085,814.986,192.966,378.74
Payout Ratio4.37%21.49%38.62%55.75%72.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197.361,034.661,979.973,043.804,237.575,573.665,900.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)941.18950.10959.02
Year 2 PV (M)1,638.351,669.551,701.05
Year 3 PV (M)2,291.072,356.832,423.85
Year 4 PV (M)2,901.423,013.003,127.77
Year 5 PV (M)3,471.433,639.103,813.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,282.8665,291.1568,414.57
Equity Value (M)73,526.3176,919.7480,439.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,753.761,753.761,753.76
Fair Value$41.92$43.86$45.87
Upside / Downside68.71%76.50%84.57%

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