Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.,Ltd (601636.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.70 - $42.89$40.20
Multi-Stage$6.02 - $6.58$6.29
Blended Fair Value$23.24
Current Price$7.18
Upside223.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.97%25.55%0.440.240.770.330.280.280.290.150.100.04
YoY Growth--81.53%-68.70%130.00%17.68%-0.09%-2.07%100.52%49.93%165.87%-19.12%
Dividend Yield--7.67%3.22%7.39%2.52%2.20%5.90%6.14%2.52%2.19%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)598.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)388.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)209.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)119.7374.8344.90
Cash Retained (M)209.89209.89209.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-119.73-74.83-44.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.16135.06164.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,775.742,775.742,775.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.70$40.20$42.89
Upside / Downside104.77%459.82%497.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)598.64637.55678.99723.13770.13820.19844.79
Payout Ratio64.94%69.95%74.96%79.98%84.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)388.75445.97508.99578.32654.51738.17781.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)413.90417.82421.74
Year 2 PV (M)438.41446.76455.19
Year 3 PV (M)462.30475.57489.09
Year 4 PV (M)485.57504.25523.45
Year 5 PV (M)508.24532.79558.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,393.3915,088.6015,810.41
Equity Value (M)16,701.8117,465.7818,258.16
Shares Outstanding (M)2,775.742,775.742,775.74
Fair Value$6.02$6.29$6.58
Upside / Downside-16.20%-12.36%-8.39%

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